Tampa Bay at Washington

Yes, Tampa Bay is bad, sitting at 1-8. But, Washington is also bad (3-8) and should not be laying over a touchdown here. The Bucs are 3-1 ATS on the road as they are being undervalued. No one wants to bet on this team on the road so the lines get shaded. That's what's happening here as I cap this game out at a fair line of about 6 points. The overlay is worth taking. Tampa Bay's defense has been bad this year, but it's showing real signs of improvement. Over their last three games, this team has allowed just 22.7 points per game - more than a full touchdown improvement over their season-longn average. Meanwhile, the Redskins are giving up 25.4 per game so there is some wiggle room here. The Bucs have followed a similar script the past couple of seasons - starting out poorly and then getting line value late. They are 8-1 ATS in November games since 2012 and in their last 29 November games, they are 21-7-1 against the number. Washington is 15-34-3 ATS in their last 52 games vs. losing teams and 5-22-2 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. teams with a losing road record. They just don't show up. In today's NFL, bad teams like the Bucs often lose and lose big. But, that's usually against very good teams with elite quarterbacks. Washington is not elite and they have an average QB. Take the generous points here.