This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 10:55PM ET.
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Tampa Bay at Chicago

December 17, 2006
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Game Total UNDER 34 -110 (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
LOSS

The Chicago offense had a surge early behind Grossman, and early on it looked like the Bears were the most complete team in the NFL. The defense has been utterly dominating for two straight years now, and it looked like the offense had caught up. Then Grossman went through some horrible games and the question became, can they win with him at QB? That question still remains unanswered, but the offense has become a bit more conservative while he regains his confidence, allowing the defense to do what they do best. Chicago gave up a bucketload of points last game but that was on the road. At home, this defense is impenetrable. The last 12 Bears home games have seen only one team score more than one TD and five teams score none! Tampa Bay has scored a pathetic 11.6 ppg good for dead last in the NFL. They have managed just one road game this year with more than one TD, and have had three in which they scored none! It has been 174 minutes and 18 seconds since the Bucs found the endzone - almost three full games. It was the first quarter vs. Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Perhaps the Bucs can become the first NFL team in history not to find the endzone from Thanksgiving to X-Mas... stay tuned! We don't believe the Bucs will find the endzone here, nor do we see Chicago scoring 30+ here. Chicago has a resurgent running game, and they will need it in the playoffs, and that will be their focus here. They won last game by making sure Grossman didn't make costly mistakes. Tampa has played UNDER to a tune of 32-15 last 47 on grass, and 35-17 last 52 road games. They don't score, so we will be going UNDER especially in a December game in blustery Chicago.

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