San Francisco at New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints are three plays from being 7-1 this season, as three of their four losses have come by 3 points, 2 points and 1 point. They have the ability to score big and score consistently at home in the Brees era. This season they are averaggin 33.7 per game at home and over their last 32 games in this dome, they have averaged 34.1 points per game, topping the 30-point mark in 20 of the 32 games. San Francisco is still a pretty good defensive team, but haven't been nearly as good as last season - especially on the road. San Francisco allowed just 16.8 ppg on the road a season ago, but this season they are just short of 25. Their games overall have gone from scoring 41.8 total points on the road last season to 47.3 total points this season. So with a total just shy of the 50-point mark, I think the New Orleans offense can achieve more than two points on that 47.3 average. While the Saints offense has been consistently good especially at home, the defense has been somewhat up and down, and that is evidenced by their 25-10 mark to the OVER when following a game where they allowed 14 points or less, as they did last week in allowing 10 to Carolina. The Jim Harbaugh-led Niners have been able to take advantage of bad pass defenses, goign 17-7 to the OVER vs. teams that allow 235+ passing yards per game. And under Seaon Payton, the Saints are 54-40 OVER as a favorite and 43-23 OVER following an ATS win. Take the OVER in this one.