Pittsburgh at Baltimore

After eight weeks, the Steelers were sitting at 2-6 and the Ravens were 3-5. It looked like neither would be in the hunt for a playoffs spot. But shockingly, this game has major playoffs implications for both teams. They both stand at 5-6, with the winner moving to .500 and hitting "contender" status, while the loser may be done. The Ravens have held one of the toughest home field advantages in the NFL in recent years, as they are 22-3 straight-up here in their last 25 games including playoffs games. And since 2008, this team is 73% ATS at home when not laying more than a touchdown. They have just a single blemish at home this season, and that was by just 2 points to an Aaron Rodgers led Packers team. Pittsburgh started 0-4, but they have won three straight to get back in the mix. However, those wins came against teams with a combined record of 14-19 and two of the three came at home. The Steelers have not played well on the road this year winning only in New York and Cleveland, and those wins aren't worth much bragging. This game may be determined by how good the QBs play as both Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger have tremendous upside and seem to thrive in the big game. So, I expect the scoring to be up here. I expect a bigger game from Flacco at home than from Big Ben on the road. The Steelers are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 on the road. And, under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are just 13-24 ATS on the road following a win. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 16-5 ATS in the John Harbaugh era as a home favorite of a touchdown or less. Baltimore has played to the OVER to a 10-4 mark in their last 14 after allowing 150 passing yards or less. And, in the Tomlin era, Pittsburgh is 25-15 OVER when coming off a division game. This one goes to Baltimore and the OVER.