This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 5:06PM ET.
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New York at San Francisco

November 6, 2005
img4:05 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
1 unit on New York -11 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN

My one pick this week in which I am going with the seemingly "obvious" public choice. The G-Men won 36-0 last week fueled by the emotions surrounding the death of their beloved owner Wellington Mara. It was a huge win so how can I back them this week? Normally I don't like backing big favorites off big wins. Won't they come crashing back down to earth? I don't think so. The fact that San Francisco won changes everything. If San Fran lost last week, I would be very worried about a Giants letdown here. But, I don't think that'll happen now. San Francisco played giant killer last week as 10.5 point underdogs. You can bet Tom Coughlin has been reminding his troupes of that all week. And, New York is just SO superior here that San Francisco doesn't stand much of a chance. They'd have to put together another performance like last week and have New York lay down as Tampa Bay did. But, New York isn't starting Chris Simms. They could sleepwalk through this one and should still win by two touchdowns. San Francisco is allowing 32 points per game (dead last in the league) while New York is scoring 30 per game (first in the league). Despite their success this season and last game, the G-Men have motivation here. They are 0-2 on the road this year and have lost six straight to the Niners and 11 of their last 13 in San Francisco. They want this win. Road teams vs. an opponent coming off a win as a double-digit dog are nearly perfect ATS in recent history in the NFL. Things, in this game at least, return to normal this week as the vastly superior team crushes the weakling opponent. One star on the Giants minus the points.

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