2016 Season WNBA Basketball Past Picks
October 11, 2016
Los Angeles at Minnesota
Tuesday 10/11 08:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on Minnesota -265 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1.38) RESULT: WIN
Los Angeles stole Game 1 on the road, so they've already accomplished what they wanted, stealing away home court in the Finals. They are a long way from home on a 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS run since a 20-1 start. Los Angeles is in search of its first WNBA title since 2002 and the current core of players is not as battle tested in the Finals as Minnesota. Don't forget that the Lynx are winners of three of the last five WNBA championships. Los Angeles is on a 7-12 spread run, including 4-8 ATS away from home. Minnesota matches up well and outrebounded the Sparks in Game 1, 32-24, shot 50.8% from the field and outscored Los Angeles inside, 40-36. The only thing they didn't do was make a three-pointer (0-for-4). While the Sparks have been uneven in the second half of the season, Minnesota is peaking at the right time on a 16-3 SU, 12-5 ATS run. The Lynx have an advantage on the offensive glass, second in the league in offensive rebound percentage (30.2%), while the Sparks were #11 (22.3%). The Lynx are also stronger on the defensive glass: In their four meetings this season the Lynx are a +13 in offensive rebounds, including +3 the last game. En route to the 2015 WNBA title, Minnesota fell in the first game against the Indiana Fever before eventually rallying to win the championship in five games. It's unlikely that the Sparks will hold Lynx leading scorer Maya Moore scoreless in the first half like they did Sunday, so look for a huge bounce back effort by the top-seeded team at home. Play Minnesota on the moneyline.