Indianapolis at Atlanta

Indianpolis has fallen on very hard times. After starting 7-0 and 6-1 ATS, they lost a very important game to New England at home. That was the start of a downward spiral that includes injuries to key players such as Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Anthjony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh. And, other players have not playing like themselves (Manning, Vinatieri, Clark). After the New England loss, they went on to lose to San Diego and had a major scare vs. Kansas City last week. Marvin Harrison will again be out and this past week, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season. This is a repeat of last season when they started out invincible only to post a 2-4 mark from mid November to mid December. This team will be back come playoffs but right now they just aren't right. Peyton Manning has thrown 7 interceptions the past two weeks to just two touchdowns. And the running game has also faltered. After averaging 138 yards per game through their first eight games, the Colts gained just 141 total yards on the ground in their last two games. The Falcons are off a terrible loss to Tampa Bay. They bring back Joey Harrington which is actually a good thing as Leftwhich has been even worse. Their only wins this season have come with Harrington under center. With their stars underperforming, riddled with key injuries, and having a short week to heal and correct things, should the Colts be laying double digits on the road? We don't think so. Yes, it's scary to back Atlanta, especially after their performance last week. But, we track a system that backs certain teams after a really bad performance that's in play here. This system has hit a 61% rate long term and it's 30-16 (65%) this year! Atlanta has played solid defense all season long. They are ranked 15th in defense overall and have kept four opponents to 16 points or less. The most points they have given up was last week thanks to a rare defensive touchdown. The Colts, as mentioned, are trending downward on offense. While scoring 32 points per game in their first seven games, they have averaged just 18 per game their last three. With their offense sagging, and still suffering from injuries, we expect their offense to again be sub-par. Our computer matchup for this game predicts 39 points. We agree that this one will come in UNDER the posted total. The Colts are 6-0 UNDER the pat three seasons on the road vs. non-conference foes. The Falcons are 18-7 UNDER at home the pat two seasons including 9-1 UNDER after having lost 4+ games out of their last six. We'll take the big double digit home dog in this one as well as the UNDER.