Detroit at Green Bay

Last week the Green Bay Packers played their ugliest game of in a long time in front of a national TV audience. They committed 18 penalties in the game, had TDs called back, kept Bears’ drives alive and to top it off, they allowed a special teams TD for good measure. The good news for the Packers is they were still in that game and they are much better than that. The bad news is we saw a real lack of discipline and some chinks in the armour. They now come back home to Lambeau Field to face the lowly Lions - not exactly a game that will get their adrenalin pumping. The Packers have issues beyond the mistakes. It is becoming quite evident that the loss of Ryan Grant has turned them into a completely one-dimensional team - pass only. They are an excellent passing team of course, but Aaron Rodgers was under duress the entire game on Monday night, and the one thing the Lions can do with their rebuilt front is get pressure. The Lions aren't good, but as bad as they have been, no team has beaten them by more than 14 points this season. Just nine of their last 31 opponents have beaten them by more than 14, so this number looks rather high. When they are coming off a big loss by 14+ the Lions are at their best, going 18-6 ATS the last 24 times this has happened. The Packers rarely find motivation in this type of game, entering this one at 4-10-2 ATS when favored by 10.5 or more at home. I like the Lions to hang inside an inflated number.