Detroit at Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys have everything working on offense. By advanced statistical measures, this is one of the top offenses in the last decade in the NFL. They have DeMarco Murray, and Tony Romo both playing at a very high level. Dallas has averaged over 40 points per game in their last four, so it has bumped the total for this one. There are considerations to be made here, however. The first of which is the Detroit defense. The Lions are second in the entire NFL behind Seattle, allowing just 17.6 ppg, which is huge in today's pass-happy NFL. The other consideration is the fact that the Cowboys' numbers may be a bit artificially inflated. In their last eight games Dallas has played the NFL's worst defenses in seven of them! Ranking their opponents in yards allowed, we have the Giants twice at #29, Washington at #20 twice, Indianapolis at #11, Philadelphia at #28, Jacksonville at #26, Chicago at #30, and Arizona at #24. There is a huge difference in what they will face here, and it has been a long time since they have faced serious resistance. It might take them a bit of time to adjust. The Lions' offense has simply not been effective all season. They have not topped 24 points in 13 of their last 15 games, or topped 20 points in any of their last three. I don't see them getting to 20 in this one either. The Lions are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine on the road. The points will be a lot tougher to come by than expected, so make the play on the UNDER.