Cleveland at New England

For all the defections and injuries that New England has endured this season, here we are in week 14 and the Patriots can once again put a wrap on the AFC East Title with a win - for the fifth straight time. I don't think that Cleveland has enough to get in the way of that, but I do think they have enough to get the money here given the huge spread. The Browns are quietly one of the best defensive teams from the line of scrimmage in the entire NFL, as they yield just 4.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams that average 5.4. Their offense has become interesting with the emergence of record-setting performances by Josh Gordon, who has had 200+ receiving yards in consecutive weeks. The Browns have gone for 20+ points in three of their last four games. As a result, I think they can get enough stops here with a solid defense, and score enough to hang inside an inflated number. New England isn't as consistent offensively as they have been in the past, and are 0-6 ATS in their last six after putting up 30+. Take the points and go with Cleveland. Also take the UNDER. In their last 15 games with a total set in this range (42.5 to 49 points), the Browns are 12-3 to the UNDER. In their last 29 December games, they are 21-6-2 to the UNDER and following an ATS loss, the Browns are 11-5 UNDER. Take the Browns and the UNDER here.