A few weeks ago I wrote an article about the high-rate at which favorites in the NFL were hitting. In that article, I noted that through seven weeks of play, underdogs were getting hammered:
Underdogs all sizes: 45% ATS
Underdogs of 7+ points: 39%
Underdogs of 9.5+ points: 35%
Underdogs of 10.5+ points: 27%
In that article I warned about betting the farm on favorites because decades of NFL history tell us that favorites simply don’t win at a rate anywhere near that. History actually tells us that things tend to revert to the mean.
So what has happened since then? In weeks 8-11, underdogs have fought back with a vengeance! Here’s what’s happened over the past four weeks:
Underdogs all sizes: 66% ATS
Underdogs of 7+ points: 67%
Underdogs of 9.5+ points: 64%
Underdogs of 10.5+ points: 62%
So what started out as a very anomalous season with favorites cashing at a very high rate, has evened out. After 11 weeks, it actually looks like a typical NFL season with dogs hitting at a 53% rate and big dogs (7+) hitting at a 50% rate. That’s right: All the profits from betting favorites through the first seven weeks has been completely wiped out in the last four weeks.
What does the rest of the season have in store? Only time will tell. But as a predominately underdog bettor, I have to say I’m glad things have normalized thus far.
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