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Taking Advantage of Day/Night Situations in MLB
As teams play virtually every day for six straight months, there are a lot of situations that take place in MLB. It is a grueling schedule with lots of attrition. Players need some rest at times, because Cal Ripken is a rare player.
I decided to take a look at if, and how these situations can be exploited to find a window of value. What follows is the discovery and well worth the read.
Ask any gambler if he would be happy to connect on 61.8% of his picks at -110 odds, and I don’t think you would find one that wouldn’t sign for that right now.
How about if he had an opportunity to play on the same 61.8% probability of winning, but instead of laying at -110 odds, he was on the receiving end of a +120 odds situation?
That is exactly what you are about to become privy to.
The toughest situation in baseball, outside of the doubleheader, is playing a day game after a night game. The fact is that this situation arises far more often than the doubleheader, so there is more reason to embrace the numbers, and more plays.
Many, if not all managers, will rest players for a day game that follows a night game. Catchers quite frequently are given that day off, as well as some veteran older players, platoon situations, etc. The door swings both ways, but what if you have a pair of weak teams to begin with – those that are both below .500?
I like the idea of the home team here as a dog, because the advantage percieved by the visiting road favorite is quite likely negated by the altered lineup. The only other factor is starting pitching. If they are a large favorite, that is usually an indication that they have a very strong starter and may justify the line, so I only want to look at games where they are a modest favorite, shunning the obvious.
So where does that leave us is playing on a home dog, when both teams have a losing record, and it is a day game following a night game, and the line is from +106 to +135?
The last nine years have seen this trend have eight winning seasons to just one losing season, and it works anytime of the year with all winning months April through September. It does however spike a bit in late August through September, and I think because the rosters expand, and bad teams (under .500 as the case here) are more apt to apply greater substitutions in the day game. The edge that they are perceived to have is no longer the same.
THE NUMERICAL RESULTS:
These home dogs carry a viscous bite as they are an amazing 47-29 (61.8%), to an average line of +120 which yields an ROI of an off the charts 35.7%!
This has defied the odds for nine years, and is winning again this season. The books are not closing the door, so down the stretch when this has been at its best potency, you have a strong case to make a few plays with a huge winning advantage!
TREND OF THE DAY: Oakland is now 50-20-1 to the under in their last 71 games vs. a right-handed starter.
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