Prior to the Kentucky Derby, you are typically required to lay about $1000 to win $100 on a “no” bet that there will be a Triple Crown Winner. Now that Orb has won the Kentucky Derby, there are only two legs left and the odds have shifted. The media thinks Orb is a good bet to win the Triple Crown. The Bleacher Report agrees, saying the odds are better than you think. So should you bet Orb to win the Triple Crown?

Let’s look at the current odds:

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2013?
Yes +290
No -375
(line available at sportsbetting.ag and betonline with similar lines are also at bovada.lv and sportsbook.com)

Will Orb win the Triple Crown? Don’t bet on it!

Carlos Condit primed to upset GSP at UFC 154

In one of the most anticipated fight in UFC history, reigning welterweight (170 lbs.) champion Georges St. Pierre (22-2) will put his title on the line vs. upstart and interim champ Carlos Condit (28-5).

He puts his belt on the line tonight in his own backyard of Montreal, Canada. But, “Rush” will need more than home cooking to remain the undisputed champion. Condit is more than up to the task and will be the toughest challenge St. Pierre has ever had to face.

GSP has all the tools necessary to cement his legacy as one of the UFC’s best ever, but so does Condit. On paper, these fighters have extremely similar skillsets, with the pure wrestling edge going to “Rush.” GSP has won his last four fights via unanimous decision, using his wrestling skills to control the action and neutralizing his opponents’ attack.

The striking edge goes to Condit, as his Muay Thai skills are among the best in the business. He hits extremely hard for a welterweight, and his knee and elbow strikes are as dangerous as anyone’s in the division. Condit showcased his striking skills, putting away Korean fighter Dong Hyun Kim (16-2) in the first round of their fight with a flying knee and a flurry of punches. As the taller, larger fighter, Condit will use his reach to keep the wrestling prowess of GSP at bay.

Condit’s ability, talent, and desire to win alone make this the toughest fight of GSP’s career. “Rush” will need to fight a perfect fight to defend his title – under the perfect conditions.

But the real edge is not what each fighter brings into this main event, it’s the fact that GSP has not fought in over 18 months. Tonight’s fight is St. Pierre’s first after having his knee surgically repaired – no warm-up fight, and no chance to polish any cage rust. Condit is far too talented and hungry to be St. Pierre’s first test back after his injury and long layoff. If he makes one mistake, he will lose. It’s just that simple.

Imagine Justin Verlander shreds his shoulder and misses an entire MLB season. He rehabs and is ready make his return. Only his first trip back to the bump is in the seventh game of the World Series! Even the superior talent and experience of one of MLB’s greatest pitchers might not be enough to overcome those insurmountable odds. That scenario is exactly what we have here. This fight is St. Pierre’s seventh game.

Sure GSP can win this – he’s one of the greatest, but against an opponent the likes of Condit coupled with the long layoff, and you’re asking too much. Condit (+250) wins in a unanimous decision.

Bet this fight for free at Freesportsbet.com.

Will the Atlanta Falcons Reach the Super Bowl? Bet on it!

Last weekend, the Falcons lost their first game of the season, falling to the Saints 31-27. It was a very close game that Atlanta had several chances to win. They did not. Congratulations to the Saints who have now won four of their last five games.

The Falcons loss gave some pleasure to the naysayers who claimed that this team was not worthy of an 8-0 record. These people point to Atlanta’s disappointing playoffs resume, a quarterback that is not considered elite, and stats that are very good, but not great.

I could argue that the team is in fact, very good. They did win eight straight games, covering the spread in 75% of those games. They have outscored opponents by over 8 points per game and their quarterback is completing 68% of his passes with a 3-to-1 TD to interception ratio and a 102.6 quarterback rating (fourth best in the league). But, let’s not argue stats and opinions. Let’s turn to data…

The loss, and the fact that the public isn’t really buying into the Falcons presents a good betting opportunity. Let’s look at Atlanta’s chances of making to, and/or winning, the Super Bowl this year. Does this sound like a longshot with the Giants, Bears, Packers and 49ers standing in their way in the NFC? Maybe so. But, all that matters are the odds. If we believe we have better actual odds than those being offered by sportsbooks, then we have a bet worth making. Let’s look at the numbers:

Will the Atlanta Falcons Reach the Super Bowl? Bet on it!

The 2012-13 NBA season is underway with all eyes on Miami. Can the Champs repeat or will it be a one-and-done year for the Heatles? Here are my preseason NBA Power Rankings to get the season started:

1. Miami Heat
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Denver Nuggets
6. Boston Celtics
7. Indiana Pacers
8. Los Angeles Clippers
9. Memphis Grizzlies
10. Chicago Bulls
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Brooklyn Nets
13. New York Knicks
14. Utah Jazz
15. Dallas Mavericks
16. Atlanta Hawks
17. Minnesota Timberwolves
18. Milwaukee Bucks
19. Golden State Warriors
20. Toronto Raptors
21. Portland Trailblazers
22. Houston Rockets
23. Phoenix Suns
24. Sacramento Kings
25. Detroit Pistons
26. Cleveland Cavaliers
27. Washington Wizards
28. New Orleans Hornets
30. Orlando Magic
31. Charlotte Bobcats

Click to get my free NBA picks, and NBA Picks and Predictions.

Perhaps one of the most intriguing games of the week comes from Columbia. The South Carolina Gamecocks welcome Missouri for an SEC East showdown. The Tigers played very well against Georgia for three quarters. After controlling the game for much of the night, Missouri could not close the deal, falling apart late in a game where UGA ran away. This week, they will try again to get their first SEC win. They will also look to keep up the momentum established last week in their win against Arizona State.

Missouri is a difficult team to figure, especially for people who like to make their bets. When they are healthy, the Tigers play good offense and defense. Quarterback James Franklin sat out last week’s game against Arizona State and the Tigers still managed to win. He is questionable on Saturday, but his presence would surely provide a boost. The Tigers have a very good secondary, but they often struggle up front. That might present a big problem against an offense like South Carolina’s. The Gamecocks are likely to ground and pound if they can.

South Carolina has been under the radar so far in 2012. After nearly losing the season opened to Vanderbilt on the road, the Cocks rebounded by beating up on two inferior opponents. This week, the competition gets ratcheted up once again. They have some injury questions to deal with, too, so that is something that people will want to monitor as the week goes along. It is worth noting that Missouri runs a similar style offense to Vanderbilt and they run it with more talent. The Commodores nearly knocked off USC, so there is hope in Missouri that the Tigers can do the same.

South Carolina is probably the more talented team. They are also at home. If they do not bring their a-game, though, they might find themselves with an SEC East loss. Gary Pinkel’s bunch has been known to go into tough environments and win – like they did last season at Texas A&M – so Gamecock fans need to worry a little bit. As ten point favorites, the Gamecocks will need to play very well in order to cover a spread that continues to climb.

Posted by Wunderdog’s trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “

If you hang around sports handicapping long enough, you will know that some guys just win. Some guys know how to pick games and they have their money sports. But what makes a sports handicapper good? What are the qualities that will take a sports handicapper from the land of complacency to the land of big profits? There are a few different things that a good sports handicapper will consistently do. For one, he will bet without emotion. He will also have good bankroll management skills. On top of that, he will understand the market in addition to the teams.

Betting without emotion

The best sports handicappers are those guys who can make their picks without letting emotion poison the well. These guys look at games with the kind of cold calculation that many bettors admire. They do not get tied to teams or ideas. They do not have league bias. They simply scan the board for good opportunities. If you want to be a good handicapper, you have to look for these sorts of opportunities. You have to be willing to leave emotion at the door. This means more than just not betting on your team. It also means not getting attached to teams that have won a lot for you.

Bankroll management skills are a must

One of the biggest challenges in sports handicapping is not just knowing which games to pick. It is also in knowing how much to put on each game. Many people struggle with this on a weekly basis. They put ten percent of their bankroll on one game. They think that they can continue to bet large amounts without going broke. The good handicapper will recognize that he is going to lose occasionally. This is why he rations his picks accordingly in order to get the maximum return on his investment.

Understanding the market is key

A good handicapper will understand a lot more than just the teams, players, and venues. He will also understand how different bettors perceive teams. This is important if you are going to ultimately get good value on a certain game. You have to understand that the market overrates or underrates certain teams. You also have to understand that the betting market overreacts to things that have happened recently. They tend to forget the past. This is a huge problem for the average bettor. The good handicapper, though, understands the fluidity of the market.

The good sports handicapper can do many things. He keeps his mind open and he leaves his heart at the door. He understands stats but he also uses his instincts. He knows when to make plays and how much to put on each one. He has patience and he does not overreact when he takes a loss. He also has a keen eye for value. If you are going to one day join the ranks of the very best handicappers, you will have to have at least some of these traits.

Posted by Wunderdog’s Trusty sidekick ” Wundercat “