Blockbuster CFB Situation
The sports betting world is comprised of an infinite number of situations that opposing teams face on a weekly basis. They often add great insights as a tool to our handicapping arsenal, and this one has been mighty potent over the years.
Here in Morning Coffee, I share the good stuff! Below I present a situation that is 67% ATS. And we’re not talking a small sample size here of 25, 50, or even 100 games in the database – this one has close to 200.
What happens when a pair of teams that are both off conference wins get together to battle? If the game features a road dog coming out with a TD or less win in their previous game and the home favorite is off a double-digit conference win, we have a great opportunity at hand.
I often like to go with underdogs, but in this situation, the road dog gets hammered! The record shows 106-170-4 ATS since 1980. That is a cover rate of just 38.4% on over 280 games played. They are indeed in a bad situation.
If they are matched-up once again with a conference opponent they fall to 86-148-3 ATS for a 36.7% ATS as a cover rate.
One of the key variables here is the fact that this week’s underdog was off a rugged conference game, winning by a TD or less. That means that the final outcome was not secure until the final whistle. It also indicates that they likely spent a lot of physical and emotional energy to get the win, while their opponent this week is on easy street, having coasting to a double-digit win last week.
So what if we added another hardship for the weary road dog? If they are playing on six or fewer days of rest, we then see them go 69-132-2 ATS for a cover rate that has now dwindled to 34.3%. Those results are with over 200 games played.
We can add one more element and make sure the line is no more than +27. We don’t want this one to be on the extreme end of the line. That leaves us with 62-125-1 ATS for a cover rate of 33.2%.
Our final situation reads as follows: Play against a conference road dog of less than +28 that is playing on less than seven days of rest and are off a conference win of 7 points or less, if they are facing a conference opponent that is off a conference win of 10 or more points.
In the end you can play this any way you want from the original premise of 106-170-4, or with the added (logical) filters that end at 62-125-1.
This week there is one team that fits the formula all the way to the 62-125-1 ATS situation. The system says to play against the Georgia Bulldogs. This situation shows the road dog at 7-28 ATS over the last five years, including 1-8 ATS last year. This is the first play of this kind so far this season.
TREND OF THE DAY
CFB: Central Florida is 40-17-2 to the UNDER in their last 59 played on grass.
A note about systems: Systems presented in Morning Coffee are intended as one input to bolster your handicapping. Please remember that plays derived from any of these systems are not my official picks. I dont necessarily recommend playing any system picks blindly and I may in fact go on the opposite side of some of these once all factors are considered and games are fully handicapped.
You can also bookmark this on del.icio.us.