More and more sportsbooks are offering their bettors the opportunity to make bets during commercial breaks. Many of these books are doing all of the big NBA games, and they are doing every single playoff game in some instances. This can be a very fun way to bet, and it can be very profitable if you are able to pick out the right opportunities. Why is this the case? It is mostly because the betting public is not very smart when it comes to these things, and they have no ability to know when a team is just on a run or when a team is going to pull away. In the NBA, everyone makes a run, so betting against the run is a good idea for some people.

In order to understand this, we need only to look at an example from a recent NBA playoff game. The Thunder were at home in game five against Memphis, and they were trailing by 14 in the 3rd quarter. Tayshaun Prince had just thrown down a great dunk, and all of the momentum was with the Grizzlies. If a person hopped on most sites that moment, he could have gotten the Thunder as a nine-point underdog for the game at that moment. It might have been tempting to take Memphis since they were already well clear of that number, but you had to know that Oklahoma City was going to make its own run in order to get right back into the game. If you made that bet, you won easily at the end.

This can be a hard thing to do and it will require you to look past your pre-conceived notions. People who are able to engage in this kind of handicapping will be rewarded, though, and they will have the ability to bring home loads of cash. You just have to be a bit of contrarian, and it helps if you actually watch the games. When you sit down and watch a game, you can get a feel for the ebbs and flows. With that knowledge in hand, you will have the unique ability to spot and target those great moments when the in-game betting line does not match reality. You can jump on it to bring home some good value for yourself.

It is often said that when you make those NBA betting picks, you might actually find value by betting on a team that has lost one of its top players. There may be an overreaction when this happens, and bettors might move too far away from the team that has lost this type of player. With this in mind, in some cases, you might be able to find solid value by spotting those clubs that have lost a good player to an injury or suspension. When is this not the case, though? It is not the case when that player is such an integral part of a team’s offense that all other players get appreciably worse when that player is off the court. This has been seen in a number of different places over the course of the year, and a good bettor will pick up on those things before making NBA picks.

When you watch the Oklahoma City Thunder play without Russell Westbrook, what do you see? This is an important question that you will ultimately have to think about before you bet on a team that loses its point guard. Westbrook was a player that dominated the ball, and he played a ton of minutes for the Thunder. A number of players were made better by not having to play on the ball, and when Westbrook got hurt, things changed. All of a sudden, Kevin Durant had to bring the ball up more, and the Thunder were just not nearly as good overall. Not only did they miss out on the offensive contributions of Westbrook, but they also lost production from many other parts of the club. Overall, it became a very ugly situation.

When you are handicapping the NBA, one of your primary goals is to assign a point value to certain things. How much is a good point guard worth? That is going to be different for every team and every player, but know generally that a good point guard is worth at least a few points. In the case of Westbrook and the Thunder, he might have been worth a half dozen points or more. Don’t underestimate just how much good a guy like Westbrook can do for the rest of a team.

This is one of the hardest things to know if you are an MLB bettor. Just when is a hot start in MLB more than a hot start? This is true of teams and it is true of players. This is especially a big question when it comes to analyzing pitcher performance. There are some times when a pitcher can look great for ten starts, but he might come crashing to the ground. How do you know if you are looking at a mirage or if the player has made some improvements that have turned him from a bad player into a good player? You need to know which numbers to look at in order to see whether what you are seeing is real or some sort of mirage. Don’t just look at wins or ERA. Look beyond those numbers to the more important figures.

Specifically, you will need to look at a pitcher’s strikeout rate and his walk rate. You will want to see how many home runs he is giving up, and how many home runs per fly ball he is giving up. You will also want to look at general batted ball percentages. A pitcher giving up many line drives and fly balls might be able to get by for a few starts, but chances are that those balls will not keep finding fielders after a little while. A guy who is suppressing line drives will have a much better chance of sustaining his success, as this indicates that he is getting people to make weak contact rather than hitting the baseball right on the screws.

Likewise, you will want to look at swinging strike rates. A pitcher who is generating a swinging strike on ten percent or more of his pitches is likely dominating out on the mound. It is hard to do this, and if a pitcher is doing it, then his stuff is not a mirage. It also makes sense to look at the contact rates for hitters. If the pitcher is getting people to swing through pitches in the strike zone, then this might mean his stuff is especially good. If most of his success is coming by getting people to swing at bad pitches, this might mean that he is just tricking people. This could catch up with him, though there are certainly pitchers who have had great success by simply generating swings outside of the zone.

If you are a serious bettor of any sports, then you probably have a good idea of just how many points a home field is worth. In football, it might be worth three points. In college hoops, you might be looking at a five or six point difference depending upon the team and the venue. With that in mind, how does the home field impact MLB betting in 2013? This is one area where handicappers are usually lacking in the baseball setting. They focus on a number of things but home field generally gets lost. The truth is that home field is different for some teams and some players. You need to get to know individual players and teams in order to give it proper weight.

The thing that you have to know about pitchers is that they have their own distinct styles. For instance, some pitchers might be groundball guys, and they can generally get by in any park. For fly ball pitchers, though, things are a little bit trickier. A fly ball pitcher out in Oakland for a night game will have a lot more success than a fly ball guy in Philadelphia or Cincinnati. The smart bettor will recognize this, as it will provide a good picture of how to properly value certain arms. In addition, you are going to want to take a hard look at how hitters play in certain parks. The effect is certainly less than with pitchers, but it is still there to some extent.

You should not treat home field in baseball like in other sports. There is no categorical rule that says a team will hit better at home than on the road. There are situations, though, with individual players that you will need to account for. A good bettor will grow familiar with these players and these situations, and he will implement these things in the general handicapping mix. Home field has a small value on the moneyline, and quantifying that small amount of value will be dependent upon a host of individual factors that only a good bettor will be able to add into his individual mix.

As you are betting on Major League Baseball, you will inevitably run into struggles. One of the most common problems occurs when a bullpen comes in and blows all of the good work for a started. This can be a special kind of problem for an MLB bettor, as most of your handicapping is going to be on the pitching matchup in the first place. So what do you do when this kind of thing happens to you early in the betting year? Some people might get gunshy, and they might try to come up with a new approach to betting. This is tempting, but it is something that you must try to run from. Major League Baseball betting is a long grind, and you have to show good patience.

Bullpens are going to be up and down all season. Just as all pitchers run into trouble, relief pitchers can have bad games, even when they are good players. The difference for them is that when they run into major problems, they do not have many innings to turn things around. They are just left with an ugly line, and they can often be the subject of lots of bettor hate. You should try your best not to think about these things. Rather, you have to think about shaking off this kind of small loss. It will happen, and you will lose even when you got the pitching matchup correct. Don’t let this alter the way you approach baseball.

You might try to learn about bullpens and who has the strongest arms. Know, however, that predicting bullpen performance is almost impossible to do. From year to year and week to week, bullpens can look great and then horrible all in one setting. This is the nature of the game, and it is one of the hazards that goes along with betting on baseball. Perhaps a good idea is to bet on those starting pitchers who can eat up a good chunk of innings. This way, you are taking the bullpen out of the equation almost entirely, and this is always a good thing. Think about this if you are looking for a good way to avoid bullpen problems.

Prior to the Kentucky Derby, you are typically required to lay about $1000 to win $100 on a “no” bet that there will be a Triple Crown Winner. Now that Orb has won the Kentucky Derby, there are only two legs left and the odds have shifted. The media thinks Orb is a good bet to win the Triple Crown. The Bleacher Report agrees, saying the odds are better than you think. So should you bet Orb to win the Triple Crown?

Let’s look at the current odds:

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2013?
Yes +290
No -375
(line available at sportsbetting.ag and betonline with similar lines are also at bovada.lv and sportsbook.com)

Will Orb win the Triple Crown? Don’t bet on it!